Carbon emissions are now growing faster than before the pandemic

As the world emerged from the lockdowns of the covid-19 pandemic, many countries promised to rebuild their economies in a climate-friendly fashion, amid hopes the recovery effort could accelerate the global journey to net-zero emissions. In reality, the opposite has happened.

Instead of a “green recovery”, global greenhouse gas emissions are rising much faster now than they did in the decade preceding the global pandemic. Emissions rose 1.3 per cent to 57.1 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023. That is a far faster annual rate of growth than during the decade 2010-2019, when emissions grew on average 0.8 per cent per year. In fact, global greenhouse gas emissions are now just below the 59.1 gigatonnes peak recorded in 2019.

All sources of greenhouse gas emissions except land use are rising, according to a report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), as economies continued to rebound from covid-19. Emissions from road transport, leaks from oil and gas infrastructure such as pipelines and industrial emissions all grew rapidly in 2023, UNEP said, while aviation emissions grew 19.5 per cent.

Rising emissions means the world’s opportunity to avert catastrophic climate change is shrinking, Inger Andersen at UNEP said in a statement. “Climate crunch time is here,” she said. “I urge every nation: no more hot air, please.”

Since 2015, nations have collectively promised to limit warming to as close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels as possible, but current national targets don’t come close to delivering that goal. Taking into account countries’ current pledges, the world is on course for between 2.6°C and 2.8°C of warming, a state of play largely unchanged since 2022.

Countries are expected to submit new national climate plans by February, ahead of the COP30 climate conference in Brazil in November. The plans should detail how countries will cut their emissions between now and 2035.

Andersen said it was vital countries come to the table with bolder plans to deliver emissions cuts, which must start immediately. The 1.5°C goal is still technically feasible, she added, but is increasingly unlikely to be achieved. “Even if the world overshoots 1.5°C – and the chances of this happening are increasing every day – we must keep striving for a net-zero, sustainable and prosperous world,” said Andersen.