Starship: When will SpaceX's next 'chopstick' test flight go ahead?

SpaceX has had a Starship ready and waiting for its fifth test flight since August, and now the company claims that it could launch as soon as this weekend.

What is Starship?

Starship is the most powerful rocket to fly. SpaceX aims to develop it into a rapidly reusable vehicle that can take large payloads into orbit, land back on Earth and launch another mission within hours. The company has been taking a “fail fast” approach to research and development more commonly seen in Silicon Valley than the conservative world of space exploration.

What will the next test flight entail?

The fifth test flight is likely to be the first attempt at catching Starship’s Super Heavy booster – the first stage of the rocket – as it drops back to the launch pad. SpaceX’s launch tower, called Mechazilla, is equipped with a pair of “chopsticks” that will grab the booster at a specific point and secure it, allowing it to be lowered to the ground.

When will the launch take place?

SpaceX says on its website that the flight could happen as soon as 13 October, pending regulatory approval.

The US Coast Guard has seemingly added official weight to the claim by issuing a warning to mariners that rocket launching operations are taking place near Boca Chica, Texas, between 7 am and 8.10 am Central Standard Time (CST), albeit a day earlier on 12 October.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which has to approve each launch before it takes place, previously said that Starship wouldn’t fly again until November. A spokesperson told the San Antonio Express-News on 3 October that nothing has changed. “We are not issuing launch authorisation for a launch to occur in the next two weeks — it’s not happening. Late November is still our target date,” they said.

But the FAA has also issued a warning to pilots that a rocket launch could take place in the Boca Chica area between 13 October and 19 October. Neither the US Coast Guard nor the FAA responded to New Scientist’s request for clarification.

One possibility is that SpaceX is announcing a launch date to put pressure on the FAA to approve it. Another is that it is considering launching without approval, which it has done in the past, sending up an early Starship prototype on a high-altitude test without permission in 2020. SpaceX was contacted by New Scientist for more details, but it didn’t respond.

Why is it taking so long for the FAA to approve test flights?

This is a question that SpaceX has been asking for some time. In a lengthy blog post published in September, it complained that the Starship for test flight 5 has been ready and waiting for launch since the month before.

“Unfortunately, instead of focusing resources on critical safety analysis and collaborating on rational safeguards to protect both the public and the environment, the licensing process has been repeatedly derailed by issues ranging from the frivolous to the patently absurd,” said the post.

But the FAA doesn’t work on the timescales that SpaceX is pushing for. It wants SpaceX to conduct an investigation of each launch, suggest remedies for any failures and comply with strict licensing requirements ahead of each subsequent attempt. In essence, the tension stems from a speedy start-up-like operation rubbing against a conservative, risk-averse government body.

The FAA has previously stated that SpaceX has not properly carried out an analysis of the effect of the sonic booms caused by launches; that it has polluted the environment with its water deluge system designed to counter Starship’s powerful rocket exhaust; and failed to get all the appropriate permits. In response, SpaceX founder Elon Musk threatened to sue the FAA.

What happened during previous Starship launches?

Test flight 1 on 20 April 2023 saw three of the first stage’s 33 engines fail to ignite. Several more subsequently failed during the flight. The rocket then span out of control, causing its self-destruct feature to kick in.

Test flight 2 on 18 November 2023 got further, gaining enough altitude that the first and second stages separated as planned. But as the first stage rotated to begin its slowdown and landing procedure, it exploded. The second stage successfully continued to an altitude of about 149 kilometres, passing the Kármán line that is often deemed to mark the beginning of space. However, a safeguard feature destroyed it when it stopped sending data, before it had a chance to complete an orbit or make its way back to Earth.

Test flight 3 on 14 March 2024 was at least a partial success as it reached space, carried out fuel transfer tests and travelled further and faster than ever before. But the craft failed to make its scheduled soft landing after losing attitude control mid-flight.

Test flight 4 on 6 June this year was the most successful so far, with Starship reaching orbit at an altitude of over 200 kilometres and travelling at more than 27,000 kilometres per hour. Both the booster and upper stage completed soft splashdowns in the ocean. There were dramatic scenes when Starship re-entered Earth’s atmosphere, as the vast temperatures caused the skin of one of its control fins to burn away – something the company says it has fixed with new heat-resistant tile designs.